Will France strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of France striking Iran by March 31, with market favoring no action.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of France striking Iran by March 31, with a 93.7% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 8.3%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall confidence in the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a stable consensus among traders.
• 3 Historical context shows low likelihood of military strikes in similar situations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 The time to expiry remains unknown, adding some uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.