Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of military action by France, UK, or Germany against Iran by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 6.80% chance of military action by France, the UK, or Germany against Iran by the end of March. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 8.8%, suggesting a consensus on the low likelihood of such an event occurring. The market appears fairly priced with a high confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment reflects low expectations for military intervention.
• 2 Key factors include regional stability and diplomatic relations.
• 3 Historical data shows low rates of intervention in similar scenarios.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 351 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.