Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Low probability for Germany sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Germany sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz, with a probability of only 2.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability at 5.65%, but overall confidence in this event occurring remains low.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO verdict.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as off