Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?

Low probability of Germany striking Iran by April 30, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Germany will not strike Iran by the end of April, with a NO probability of 96.55%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment but with a slightly higher YES probability of 6.95%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of a YES outcome.
• 3 Current geopolitical climate appears stable regarding Germany and Iran.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 758 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.