Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Hamnet has a low chance of winning Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market indicates a 2.05% probability for Hamnet winning Best Picture, with a strong consensus against it at 97.95%. The Pulse AI slightly adjusts this to a 3.05% probability, suggesting minimal optimism. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a high confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Hamnet's chances are perceived as very low based on current data.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low odds for films with similar market probabilities.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 21 hours until the event.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.