Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Hamnet is highly unlikely to win Best Production Design at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Hamnet winning, with a 99.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a very low likelihood of a win, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Hamnet.
• 2 The probability of YES is extremely low at 0.05%.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 0.95.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating strong market belief.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Production Design.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Production Design when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.