High probability suggests strong expectation of Hezbollah military action against Israel on March 27, 2026.
The market indicates a 92.5% probability for Hezbollah to engage in military action against Israel, reflecting significant sentiment towards this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 85%, indicating a consensus on the likelihood, though the NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100 and only 96 hours to expiry, market dynamics may shift quickly based on emerging geopolitical developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the t