High probability suggests strong expectations for Hezbollah's military action against Israel on March 31, 2026.
The market indicates an 89.5% probability that Hezbollah will engage in military action against Israel on the specified date. This aligns with the Pulse AI's prediction of 82%, though the NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting some uncertainty in the consensus. The confidence level of 55 out of 100 indicates moderate conviction in these predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the t