Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

The market strongly favors that Ilhan Omar will not resign by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.35% likelihood that Ilhan Omar will not resign by the end of March, suggesting strong confidence in her continued position. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly lower probabilities. With a confidence rating of 85/100 and a time to expiry of 533 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating stability.
• 3 The edge of 0.35 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a low likelihood of resignation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.