Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31?

The market indicates no expectation of India striking Pakistan by the end of the year.

Current market sentiment shows a strong belief that India will not engage in military action against Pakistan by December 31, with a 100% probability assigned to 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood of a strike, with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a 'NO' outcome at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level of 85 indicates strong conviction in the current prediction.
• 4 The edge of 1 suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 5 No imminent time pressure is indicated, allowing for stable sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.