Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Market favors no strike by India on Pakistan by end of 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 72.5% likelihood that India will not strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026, with a lower probability of 27.5% for a strike. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a slight increase in the probability of a strike. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily toward no strike.
• 2 The probability of a strike has a slight upward bias from AI predictions.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancies.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.