Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of India striking Pakistan by March 31.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the likelihood of India striking Pakistan, with a 98.85% chance of 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may not escalate to military action within the given timeframe.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 98.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher 'YES' probability at 4.65%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 108 hours, adding urgency to the situation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.