Will India strike Pakistan by November 30?

The market strongly predicts no strike by India on Pakistan by November 30.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of India striking Pakistan by the end of November, with a strong consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, assigning only a 1% probability to the possibility of a strike, suggesting a high level of confidence in the NO outcome.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus with 100% probability on NO.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of a strike.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85/100, suggesting strong conviction in the NO outcome.
• 4 The edge of 1 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 5 No imminent time pressure as the expiry date is unknown, allowing for stable sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.