Will India strike Pakistan by Oct 31?

The market indicates no likelihood of India striking Pakistan by October 31.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the likelihood of India striking Pakistan, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance of a strike occurring. This indicates a stable geopolitical environment between the two nations at this time.

• 1 Market consensus strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects low expectations for military action.
• 3 Historical context shows limited instances of strikes in recent years.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.
• 5 Confidence level indicates a strong belief in the current probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.