Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

The market overwhelmingly predicts Iran will not announce a new supreme leader by March 2026.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is strong consensus against the announcement of a new supreme leader in Iran by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment and analysis support this view.

• 1 Market shows strong confidence in a 'NO' outcome with 99.95% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.05%, but still low overall.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates a robust analysis backing the 'NO' prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry of 528 hours allows for potential developments but remains unlikely to change the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.