Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?

The market indicates a strong belief that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026.

Current market probabilities show a 0% chance of Iran announcing a new supreme leader on the specified date, with a consensus leaning heavily towards 'NO.' The AI probability aligns closely with the market, suggesting a stable outlook with minimal expected changes in sentiment.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus with 100% probability on 'NO'.
• 2 AI model suggests a slight chance of 'YES' at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating reliable market sentiment.
• 4 Time to expiry is 509 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.