Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?

The market strongly favors no announcement of a new supreme leader by March 13, 2026.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader by the specified date. The AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a very low likelihood of a leadership change occurring within the timeframe.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against a new supreme leader announcement.
• 2 AI probability slightly diverges but still indicates a low likelihood of change.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates high reliability in the current assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry of 506 hours allows for potential developments but remains unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.