Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?

The market indicates a strong belief that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026.

Current market probabilities show a 100% expectation that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a slight probability of 2% for a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus against this event occurring. Given the high confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against a new supreme leader announcement.
• 2 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly NO, with no YES probability.
• 3 The Pulse AI's slight YES probability indicates minimal uncertainty.
• 4 High confidence level suggests stability in market expectations.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 481 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.