Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?

The market indicates no expectation for a new Iranian supreme leader by March 2026.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the announcement of a new supreme leader in Iran by March 18, 2026, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for 'YES', suggesting that significant changes in the political landscape would be required to alter these expectations.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus with 100% probability for 'NO'.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating strong market conviction.
• 4 Time to expiry is 484 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.