Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?

The market indicates no expectation for Iran to announce a new supreme leader by March 2026.

With a market probability of 0% for a new supreme leader announcement, sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this view, with a low probability of 2% for a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus on the stability of Iran's leadership in the near term.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against a new leader announcement.
• 2 High confidence level indicates stability in current leadership.
• 3 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to news.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential political shifts.
• 5 Historical context suggests infrequent leadership changes in Iran.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.