The market strongly favors no announcement of a new supreme leader by March 21, 2026.
Current market probabilities indicate a 100% confidence in a 'NO' outcome regarding the announcement of a new supreme leader in Iran by March 21, 2026. The Pulse AI reflects a slight possibility for a 'YES' at 2%, suggesting minimal sentiment for a change in leadership. With a high confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.
This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.
An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.