Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?

Market overwhelmingly predicts no announcement of a new supreme leader by Iran on March 23, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Iran announcing a new supreme leader on the specified date, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating minimal uncertainty in the market's pricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of 'YES' at 2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 85/100, reflecting strong consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is 421 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.