Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?

The market strongly favors no announcement of a new supreme leader by Iran on March 27, 2026.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on the specified date. The AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of no announcement. With a confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting stability in Iran's leadership structure.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against a new supreme leader announcement.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slight chance of a YES outcome, but it's low.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 reflects strong market conviction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, with 489 hours remaining.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.