Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?

The market strongly favors no announcement of a new supreme leader by March 3, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a consensus against the likelihood of Iran announcing a new supreme leader on the specified date. With a high confidence level of 85/100 and minimal expected changes in probabilities, the market appears to be fairly priced at this time.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES at 2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 suggests strong belief in current market stance.
• 5 Time to expiry is 515 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.