Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?

The market strongly favors no announcement of a new supreme leader by Iran on March 4, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 99% probability for 'NO'. Given the high confidence level of 95/100 and the market's edge of 1, the pricing appears to be well-aligned with expectations.

• 1 Market consensus is firmly against a new supreme leader announcement.
• 2 High confidence level suggests strong market belief in current probabilities.
• 3 The edge of 1 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Low liquidity may impact the ability to adjust positions quickly.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential for significant shifts.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.