Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?

The market strongly indicates no new supreme leader announcement from Iran on March 6, 2026.

Current market probabilities show a 100% expectation that Iran will not announce a new supreme leader on the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment with a 99% probability for 'NO', suggesting a strong consensus against such an announcement occurring within the given timeframe.

• 1 Market shows a clear consensus against a new supreme leader announcement.
• 2 High confidence level of 95 indicates strong market belief in the current outcome.
• 3 Time to expiry is short, with only 18 hours remaining for potential changes.
• 4 The edge of 1 suggests that the market is fairly priced with little room for movement.
• 5 Low liquidity may limit the ability to influence market probabilities significantly.

This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.