Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

Market suggests low likelihood of Iran claiming responsibility for the Oslo Embassy attack.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Iran claiming responsibility for the attack, with a 96% probability for 'NO'. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, indicating a general agreement among participants about the unlikelihood of such a claim.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 96%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low likelihood for 'YES' at 6%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 5 Uncertainty remains due to unknown time to expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services.

Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.