Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

High probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz before 2027.

The market indicates a 99.95% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027, suggesting strong sentiment towards this outcome. However, the AI probability is slightly lower at 93.95%, indicating some room for skepticism about this prediction. The edge of -6 points for the NO side suggests that it may be undervalued in the current market context.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 2 The high confidence level indicates strong consensus among participants.
• 3 The NO side is perceived as undervalued, suggesting potential market correction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for geopolitical developments.
• 5 AI predictions align closely but show a slightly more cautious outlook.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.