Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

High probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by June 30.

The market shows a 99.95% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of June. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 93.95%, suggesting strong consensus among participants. The NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential market mispricing.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a closure of the Strait.
• 2 Geopolitical tensions are a key driver of this market.
• 3 Historical patterns suggest high volatility around such events.
• 4 Liquidity appears strong, supporting the current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 2472 hours until expiry.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.