Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?

High probability suggests strong sentiment for Iran's military action against Israel by March 2026.

The market indicates an 81.5% probability that Iran will engage in military action against Israel on March 21, 2026, reflecting significant concern over geopolitical tensions. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 74%, suggesting some skepticism about the certainty of this outcome. The NO side appears undervalued, with a notable edge of -7.5 points.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors military action by Iran.
• 2 Market probability suggests strong geopolitical concerns.
• 3 The NO side is considered undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 262 hours.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or othe