Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?

Market shows a 62% chance of Iran attacking Israel on March 27, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 62% probability that Iran will engage in military action against Israel on the specified date. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower likelihood at 54.5%, indicating some divergence in sentiment. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 295 hours, the market reflects uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors military action by Iran.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 295 hours until expiry.
• 5 Geopolitical developments could rapidly alter market probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or othe