Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?

Market shows a 60.5% chance of Iran taking military action against Israel by March 29, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a majority belief that Iran will engage in military action against Israel, with a probability of 60.5%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a narrower margin, estimating a 53% chance for the same outcome, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty as the market approaches its expiry in 296 hours.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards military action by Iran.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting potential for reevaluation.
• 3 Pulse AI's prediction is more conservative than the market average.
• 4 The confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 296 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or othe