Market shows a 60.5% chance of Iran attacking Israel on March 30, 2026.
The prediction market indicates a majority belief in a potential military action by Iran against Israel, with a probability of 60.5%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a narrower margin, reflecting uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape. The market is classified as 'TOO_CLOSE', indicating that the outcome remains highly contested.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or othe