Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?

The market strongly predicts Iran will not name a successor to Khamenei by March 1.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Iran will not name a successor to Khamenei by the specified date. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a very low likelihood of a successor being named, reflecting a consensus on the political climate in Iran.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against naming a successor by the deadline.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slight chance of a successor announcement.
• 3 Confidence level indicates a high degree of certainty in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge indicating stability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.