Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

The market strongly favors that Iran will not name a successor to Khamenei by March 3.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Iran will not name a successor to Khamenei by the specified date. The Pulse AI suggests a slight possibility of a YES outcome, but overall confidence remains high that the NO outcome is accurately priced.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of YES at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating strong market belief.
• 4 Time to expiry is 535 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.