Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

High probability of Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by March 31.

The market shows a strong consensus that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei by the end of March, with a YES probability of 93.60%. The Pulse AI also supports this outlook, though it suggests the NO side may be undervalued. With 533 hours until expiry, there is still time for developments that could influence these probabilities.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 Market probability indicates strong confidence in a successor being named.
• 3 The NO side has a notable undervaluation of 6 points.
• 4 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment but shows slight caution.
• 5 Time pressure could amplify reactions to any political developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.