Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?

Low probability of Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by March 8.

The market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by the specified date, with a 92.5% probability for 'NO'. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, indicating a general agreement on the uncertainty surrounding this political transition.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 92.5%, indicating low confidence in a successor announcement.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 11%, but still leans towards 'NO'.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in the market's assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is 532 hours, allowing for potential developments that could influence the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.