Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?

The market strongly favors Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by March 9.

With a market probability of 100% for a YES outcome, there is a strong consensus that Iran will name a successor by the deadline. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slight chance of uncertainty, indicating that the NO side may be undervalued by 6 points, reflecting potential risks or changes in the political landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a YES outcome.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance of uncertainty.
• 3 The edge suggests the NO side may be undervalued by 6 points.
• 4 High confidence level of 90/100 reflects strong belief in the YES outcome.
• 5 Time pressure with 528 hours until expiry may influence market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.