Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of an Iranian strike on Abqaiq by March 31.

The prediction market assigns a 25% probability to the likelihood of an Iranian strike on the Abqaiq oil processing facility by the end of March. This is slightly lower than the Pulse AI's estimate of 28.5%, suggesting a consensus that such an event is unlikely. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a low risk of an attack.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal, indicating stability.
• 3 Historical trends show low frequency of strikes on major oil facilities.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Uncertainty about time to expiry may affect trader confidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.