Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?

The market indicates a low likelihood of Iran striking Afghanistan in March.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the likelihood of an Iranian strike on Afghanistan, with a 95.4% chance of 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may not escalate to military action in the near term.

• 1 Market probability favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' but still low overall.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects stability in Iran-Afghanistan relations.
• 4 Historical context shows low frequency of direct military conflict.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.