Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?

Market sees a low chance of Iran striking the Al Zour Refinery by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 31.5% probability of an Iranian strike on the Al Zour Refinery, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 35%. With a confidence level of 65 out of 100 and an edge of 3.5, the market appears to be fairly priced, leaning towards a 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests potential for market adjustment.
• 3 Historical trends show low frequency of direct strikes in similar geopolitical contexts.
• 4 Liquidity in this market may influence price stability and shifts.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, which may affect trader behavior and sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.