Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Azerbaijan by March 31.

With a market probability of 15.50% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 19%, the consensus leans towards a 'NO' outcome. The confidence level of 70/100 suggests moderate certainty in this assessment, indicating that while the risk is not negligible, it is considered low.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a consensus on low likelihood of conflict.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the analysis.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll