Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?

The market predicts a 100% chance of Iran striking Bahrain in March.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that Iran will strike Bahrain in March, with a 100% probability assigned to this outcome. The Pulse AI model also supports this view, estimating a 95.5% likelihood, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge. Confidence in this prediction is relatively high at 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment for an Iranian strike on Bahrain.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 Current edge indicates market pricing is reasonable.
• 4 High confidence level suggests strong belief in the prediction.
• 5 Lack of time to expiry may affect market volatility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.