Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Burj Khalifa by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 24% probability for a strike, with a stronger consensus against it at 76%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood at 31%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the data.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a lack of consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical data may not provide strong precedents for this scenario.
• 4 Market liquidity appears limited, impacting the reliability of predictions.
• 5 The unknown time to expiry adds uncertainty to the assessment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.