Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?

Low probability for an Iranian strike on Dimona by March 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a 9.5% chance of Iran striking Dimona by the end of March, with a strong preference for a NO outcome at 90.5%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES at 13%, but overall confidence in the market's pricing is moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of direct Iranian strikes on Israel.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.