Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?

Market leans towards no strike on the pipeline by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 71% probability against an Iranian strike on the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by the end of March, indicating a strong sentiment against this outcome. In contrast, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 34% for a strike, reflecting some uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a no strike outcome significantly.
• 2 The Pulse AI indicates a moderate chance of a strike, suggesting some divergence in views.
• 3 The market probability and AI probability are relatively close, indicating balanced perspectives.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in the geopolitical situation.
• 5 The edge of 5 indicates that the market is likely fairly priced at this time.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.