Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of Iran striking France by April 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 2.65% chance of Iran striking France by the specified date, with a strong consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 6.15%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the geopolitical context.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol