Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of Iran striking Germany by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of Iran striking Germany, with a 96.9% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 93.4% for the same outcome, suggesting a general agreement among participants about the geopolitical stability in this context.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical stability appears to be a key factor in low probabilities.
• 3 Historical context shows limited direct conflict between Iran and Germany.
• 4 Market liquidity is stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol