Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?

Market indicates low likelihood of Iran striking Ghawar Field by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 20.5% probability for a strike on Ghawar Field, suggesting a strong belief that such an event is unlikely. The Pulse AI model gives a slightly higher probability of 24%, indicating some uncertainty but still favoring a 'NO' outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The difference between market and AI probabilities is relatively small.
• 3 Historical data suggests low frequency of strikes on major oil fields.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.