Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking the Habshan Complex by March 31.

With a market probability of 24.5% for a strike, the consensus leans towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a strike at 29.5%, suggesting some uncertainty remains, but overall confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability suggests a strong belief in non-action by Iran.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability, indicating some divergence in sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced with limited mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.